Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Crunching Numbers Part II: Delving into the results



Okay, I'm finally ready for Part Deux of the Crunching Numbers series. In the first part I summarized my database and the three ratings I calculated from those numbers - Horse Rating, Race Rating, and the Harper Rating (Horse/Race Power Rating), which combines the Horse Rating and the Race Rating. In this installment, I'll take a look at races and horses that rated highly since 2013, as well as look at some of the divisions (including this year's 3yo Colts) and how the ratings viewed those performances. The numbers (median, average, overall range) have changed slightly since my last entry due to additional data from the last few weeks. But, for the most part, the order or races hasn't changed.

Out of all the races in the sample (Jan 2013 to today), the 2014 BC Classic rated as the top Race Rating, followed by the 2013 BC Classic, 2013 Whitney, 2015 BC Sprint, and 2015 Whitney.

2014 BC Classic
102.65
2013 BC Classic
102.13
2013 Whitney
99.65
2015 BC Sprint
98.65
2015 Whitney
97.52

Given the way I put together these ratings, any race in which the winner puts up a big number across all figure/ratings systems AND where the top three finishers were closely bunched at the wire, will rate very high. Both the 2013 and 2014 Classics were photo finishes where the top three finishers all received high figures, which is why those two races occupy the exacta in the Race Ratings category.